Preventing 'success disaster'

Message on Hatchimals website in December, 2016

A Google product expert--one of the team behind the new artificial-intelligence Google Translate technology--recently spoke about the need to prevent success disaster. That's a situation in which an organisation lacks the practical capabilities to meet high demand for a product.

In other words, suppose something new like the revamped Google Translate is tested and adopted by a large number of users. The result would be a strain on Google's network unless it planned, in advance, for an extended, sustained surge in usage. Meaning new processing equipment and new networking equipment. Which Google did, in fact, install prior to revamping Google Translate this year.

Family Search, the free genealogy website, also understands the potential for success disaster. As more people worldwide become interested in family history and post names and photos on Family Search's databases, the organisation has arranged for flexible cloud computing services to keep operating at peak demand.

Now think about the potential for success disaster at Christmas time. Weeks ago, well before the peak of holiday shopping, Hatchimal toys were already out of stock in many stores. Even though the company shipped additional inventory during December, it recognised that some children were going to be disappointed by not having Hatchimals under the tree in 2016. The message shown at top was a pop-up on the company's home page in mid-December.

Admittedly, predicting the popularity of a new toy (actually, predicting consumer behaviour towards purchasing the new toy) is quite a challenge. But even LEGO, with its long history of sales analysis, wasn't prepared for worldwide demand in 2015. No wonder LEGO 's top executive says: “If you make a decision in product design, you need to mirror it in manufacturing.” That is a major step towards preventing success disaster.